1. US equities: a more balanced approach
2. Global equities: US no longer the front-runner?
3. Emerging markets: China policy inconsistent
4. Small caps: historically cheap but inflation a headwind
5. A secular change: outlook will need constant adjusting through 2022
Finally, to repeat an earlier point, there is currently tremendous uncertainty in terms of the true trend of much of the underlying dataflow. This makes a strong conviction and dogmatic conclusion on the future outlook even more challenging than usual. On balance, higher inflation, tighter policy but still robust growth represents a reasonable backdrop for markets, but I do think that the chances are higher than they have been for many years that a secular change is unfolding.