A tough fiscal reality awaits new government

An incoming government will have to raise taxes. Politically, this is best done quickly – will courage prevail?

Elections, interest rates and markets

A record year for elections – but what do they mean for markets?

Back to basics: why the time is right for a return to multi-asset

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The great reset in bond yields and the prospect of inflation falling further means multi-asset is once again an attractive option for investors seeking a smoother return profile.

The snap election could put QE losses back in focus

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With Bank of England quantitative easing losses dwarfing those of other central banks, expect a new government to start asking tough questions.

Are we heading for the Goldilocks scenario?

The difficult economic balance of “not too hot, not too cold” needs inflation to fall to target while the economy keeps growing, allowing for rate cuts. Here’s why we think it could happen

Politics, Inflation & Interest Rates

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ECB to cut rates this week.

The race for rate cuts  

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After a series of negative surprises in the US, the Fed is no longer expected to lead on rate cuts. Europe is now where all eyes are cast but will it be the ECB or BoE, that blinks first?

Inflation falls: how far will interest rates follow?

Inflation is finally falling in the US, UK and Europe, but will we see greater dispersion in central bank actions?

Rate cuts to start in June

In Europe, a June cut is likely – but what about the UK and US?

Interest rate cuts back on the agenda

Pessimism about the prospects for US interest rates cuts has been growing steadily as 2024 has developed. But there was a big change last Friday.