Inflation falls: how far will interest rates follow?

Inflation falls: how far will interest rates follow?

Key Takeaways

  • US inflation numbers dipped last week, and although it was only a modest decline it was warmly greeted by markets

  • With inflation data due from the UK and Europe this month, there are expectations that they will follow suit

  • With the US consumer feeling less confident, we expect a softness in US consumer spending and renewed downward pressure on prices

  • The economies in Europe and the UK are growing more rapidly, but as this is off a low base it shouldn’t impact central bank intentions to cut rates

  • All in all this constitutes a favourable background for financial markets and we foresee further gains over the remainder of 2024

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Steven Bell
Steven Bell
Chief Economist, EMEA

Steven Bell is a Managing Director, responsible for providing macro strategy input to a broader range of multi asset investment portfolios. He joined Columbia Threadneedle through the acquisition of BMO GAM (EMEA) in 2021, having previously been with BMO since 2013. He joined the group having run the GLC’s Global Macro programme for the previous seven years. Before that he was Global Chief Economist and Investment Head of the UK multi asset business at Deutsche Asset Management during his tenure 1984 – 2005. Steven began his career as an Economic Adviser at the UK Treasury and has degrees in economics from the London School of Economics and Stanford University, California.

Steven Bell

Key topics

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